ExxonMobil (XOM.US): Adjusting Estimates Post 3Q 8-K Update, Very Strong Refining

Following ExxonMobil's pre-market release of its 3Q26 Earnings Considerations 8-K, UBS raises its 3Q26E EPS to $4.14 from $3.27, above the Street's $3.84, with the upward revision largely driven by capture of higher refining margins. By segment, upstream earnings are estimated at $7.4bn versus $9.2bn in 2Q26 and $5.7bn in 3Q25; Energy Products at $8.5bn versus $4.1bn and $1.8bn respectively; Chemical Products at $0.6bn and Specialty Products at $1,403m. Margin changes across segments are an estimated $4.4bn tailwind, partly offset by a $2.5bn timing headwind, while volume disruptions from Middle East events changed little. With the commodity team lifting its oil price forecast (WTI averaging $86.60/bbl in 2026 and $76/bbl in 2027, from $79.22 and $71), UBS raises 2026-28E EPS to $13.35, $11.33 and $12.86. The price target rises to $199 from $185, based on 9.5x 2028E P/CF in line with the historical average, with a Buy rating maintained.