本报告为高盛中国经济研究团队对中国经济自研专有指标的月度更新。报告显示，9月中国经济当前活动指数（CAI）环比折年增速较8月回升，主要由制造业部门带动，消费者与其他分项贡献相对温和；进口隐含的国内需求代理指标则显示8月国内需求增长偏弱。宏观数据意外指数（MAP）的移动平均值表明近期宏观数据整体好于市场预期。建筑与制造业增长代理指标9月基本持平，初步投资跟踪指标按实际增加值口径指向三季度增长走弱，库存跟踪指标暗示三季度库存水平可能下降，库存变动对GDP环比增长的拉动相应减弱。外贸方面，"中国以外"出口跟踪指标与8月官方出口增速基本一致，而进口跟踪指标明显弱于官方进口数据。金融条件指数（含信贷数量）9月小幅收紧。报告仅对上述专有指标逐项作解释性说明，未给出明确的资产配置或交易建议。
This report is a monthly update of Goldman Sachs' proprietary China economic indicators. Our China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) picked up in September on a mom annualized basis versus August, with the acceleration driven by the manufacturing sector while consumer and other components contributed more modestly. Our import-implied domestic demand proxy points to weaker domestic demand growth in August. The MAP surprise index (21-day moving average) shows that recent macro data have on average come in above market expectations. Our construction and manufacturing growth proxy stayed flat in September, our preliminary investment tracker (on a real value-added basis) points to weaker growth in Q3, and our inventory tracker suggests inventory levels may have declined in Q3 2026, implying a smaller contribution from inventory changes to sequential GDP growth. On trade, our China outside-in export tracker was broadly in line with official export growth in August, while the outside-in import