The Economy Next Week: Treading water

Global Markets Research weekly. We expect US core CPI inflation to ease, China's exports to pick up, India's inflation to rise and MAS to tighten "slightly". We expect the Fed to deliver another 25bp hike at the December meeting and to remain on hold in 2027 with risks skewed towards tightening. We expect two more ECB rate hikes in December 2026 and March 2027, lifting the depo rate to 3.00%. In Japan, we expect rate hikes in December 2026 and March 2027, with a weaker JPY and higher oil prices potentially leading to three hikes. Sustained AI demand and gradual normalization of the energy supply chain bode well for Asia; we expect Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore to outperform and remain cautious on Indonesia and Thailand. We see early signs of inflation generalisation in Asia. China's economy is best described as a big divergence and domestic weakness;