Australian Gold: Outlook constructive, albeit renewed momentum contingent on the Fed; GMD, NEM, CMM the top picks

We outline our preferred picks and key gold price trends in the latest ASX Gold Dashboard. (1) Gold price outlook constructive, albeit renewed momentum contingent on the Fed. We mark-to-market our gold deck, lifting FY27/28E prices by ~7% (JPM LT unchanged at US$4,100/oz). FY27E EBITDA lifts ~4-12% across our coverage. (2) We remain positive on gold equities, with higher medium-term prices likely to see the entire sector move up. Our coverage is trading on an undemanding 5x EBITDA in FY28 or 4x in FY29, with the majority of companies un-geared and reporting record EBITDA margins (~60% on average). We expect capital returns and growth to remain key themes, and the sector is ripe for consolidation. (3) Our top picks are GMD (OW), NEM (OW) and CMM (OW). GMD offers a relatively cheap P/NPV of 0.9x and 1yr fwd EV/EBITDA of ~5x with some of the strongest growth in the sector;