本报告为高盛对中国保险行业2026年第三季度业绩的前瞻。报告预计中资险企将于十月末披露三季报，整体业绩偏弱，利润与NBV增速均由正转负。利润端，三季度权益市场明显回落，基本抹去二季度涨幅，叠加去年同期高基数，前三季度利润同比大幅下滑，多数险企单季或将录得净亏损；中国财险凭借较低的权益敞口与稳健投资风格，年初至今利润相对更具韧性，中国平安则依靠银行板块利润支撑单季盈利。新业务价值方面，受银保渠道费用监管调整、银行存款竞争分流以及宏观不确定性抑制保障型需求影响，行业保费增长显著放缓，预计除中国人寿外多数险企全年NBV同比下降，并存在进一步下修风险，可能促使险企将重心转向2027年开门红。
This note previews Chinese insurers' 3Q26 results, due Oct 28-30, and expects a weak set of results with profit and NBV growth turning negative. A sharp 3Q equity market decline largely offset 2Q gains and, combined with an exceptionally high base, points to a substantial year-on-year profit decline for 9M26, with most insurers likely posting net losses in the quarter; CPIC is seen as most resilient year-to-date given lower equity exposure and a conservative investment approach, while Ping An should stay profitable on steady bank earnings. NBV is now expected to decline in FY26 for all lifers except China Life, reflecting regulatory disruption in the bancassurance channel, deposit competition from banks and weaker consumer demand amid macro uncertainty, with further downside risk if 3Q weakness prompts insurers to shift focus to a 2027 jump-start. As share prices have yet to fully price in 3Q weakness plus further equity market and long-term bond yield declines in October, the team sta