Air Products: Key themes ahead of FY26 results

We regularly hold calls with companies to ensure we remain up to date with their latest communications. We recently caught up with Air Products ahead of FY26 reporting, and provide an update on the key themes below. 4QFY26/FY26 messaging remains unchanged. Outside Americas on-site and China coal gasification, 4Q26 volumes are expected to continue to be lacklustre. This should be offset by strong pricing ex-helium, ongoing projects ramps (e.g. GCA), and the ongoing cost savings program. We make no changes to our FY26 estimates. For FY27, the messaging appears consistent with our forecast of +HSD Adj. EPS growth. As per the 3QFY26 call, NEOM is still expected to have no significant financial impact in FY27. The core of the EPS growth is expected to be delivered by 1) ongoing productivity programs and 2) another c. 2-3% impact from ramp-ups and 3) continuing ex-helium pricing. Helium is expected to be neutral overall, with a weaker first half weighed down by the NASA contract which expire