报告调整摩根士丹利中国/香港焦点名单:新增太古地产(1972.HK),剔除宁德时代A股(300750.SZ)。分析师给予太古地产增持评级并列为首选,看好其覆盖中国内地与香港的优质写字楼及零售资产组合、清晰的资本循环目标、持续增长的派息以及香港租赁基本面改善。内地零售占总资产值约35%,2026年上半年北京、上海部分商场租户销售额分别同比增长63%和82%,广州、西安新开高端商场将贡献增量收入。2026年前九个月中环现时租金上涨9.4%,在供给有限、资本市场活跃及租户追求优质物业的推动下,预计2027年将延伸至太古广场及港岛东。公司过去九年每股派息年均增长5%,预计延续至2028年,当前股息率5%;股价对应0.5倍前瞻市净率(2011年以来长期均值0.6倍),较净资产值折让40%。
We add Swire Properties (1972.HK) to our China/HK Focus List and remove CATL-A (300750.SZ). Adding Swire Properties: Morgan Stanley's HK Property analyst, Praveen Choudhary, rates the stock OW (Top Pick). The company has a premium office and retail portfolio across Hong Kong and Mainland China, clear capital recycling objectives, consistent dividend growth, and improving Hong Kong leasing fundamentals. Mainland retail remains a key growth driver (35% of GAV), with select malls in Beijing and Shanghai recording 63% and 82% YoY tenant sales growth in 1H26, respectively; new premium malls opening in Guangzhou and Xi'an should add further income. Spot rental is up 9.4% in Central in 9M26, which we expect to extend to Pacific Place and Island East in 2027, driven by limited capacity addition, robust capital-market activity, and flight to quality. The company has increased its DPS 5% per annum for the last nine years, and we expect that to continue through 2028;