本报告为高盛全球外汇交易员系列，围绕美元、欧元、以色列谢克尔、英镑以及贸易条件与前沿市场货币展开。报告认为，今年以来支撑美元的美国经济与股市优势、AI资本开支扩张带来的近端通胀压力，正使利差转向有利美元，但本周外汇走势更像这一框架受到重新审视，而非对美联储声明的负面解读：美元回落与年初"DeepSeek冲击"时的科技股抛售高度相似，且跌幅更大，主要反映欧洲资产获得利率缓解。基准情形仍为多数主要货币对维持较紧区间、亚洲汇率管理稳健、套息收益在总回报中占重要权重。欧元方面维持区间判断，但主权利差走阔的尾部风险意味着欧元看跌对冲具配置价值；谢克尔受选举不确定性与央行干预制约，中期仍被视为对冲科技股敞口的合意工具；英镑财政风险总体可控但利好已较多计入价格，欧元/英镑偏向上行。贸易条件框架显示能源冲击利好挪威克朗、加元、哥伦比亚比索与澳元，台币、泰铢、韩元相对脆弱；
This Global FX Trader discusses USD, EUR, ILS, GBP, FX and Terms of Trade and Frontier FX. For much of the year, strong US economic and equity performance and AI-driven tailwinds supported the Dollar, with the AI boom lifting capex and near-term inflation pressures and shifting rate differentials in the Dollar's favor. This week's broad FX pattern is more consistent with that framework coming under renewed scrutiny than with a negative reaction to the FOMC's emphasis that there is no urgency to hike. The Dollar's underperformance amid renewed AI concerns and a sharp tech sell-off closely resembles last January's "DeepSeek sell-off", though DXY fell more this time despite less US equity underperformance, largely reflecting an element of rate relief in European assets. The baseline remains relatively tight ranges in most major crosses, firm currency management in Asia, and a strong carry component. The Euro is expected to trade in a range, but wider sovereign spreads imply a higher-vol F