Akeso: HARMONi-3-sq readout is the next test, not the last word

HARMONi-3-sq readout in 2H26 is a tactical opportunity, but OS remains the real test. The next 6-9 months should provide a two-step validation of ivonescimab's global 1L sq-NSCLC opportunity: final PFS with an early OS look in 2H26, followed by interim OS in 1H27. Akeso's current price reflects only ~$4-5bn of global ivonescimab peak sales, between the bear (~$2-3bn) and base (~$5-7bn) scenarios. The base case remains for HARMONi-3 SQ to meet its PFS endpoint, supported by strong China efficacy and AstraZeneca's $2bn investment in Summit, but meaningful upside may require convincing OS in 1H27. The debate on ivo will outlive H-3: HARMONi-GI1 achieved statistically significant OS superiority in 1L biliary tract cancer, and partners including Pfizer, GSK, Revolution Medicines, Arcus/GORTEC and AZ/Daiichi Sankyo are testing ivonescimab with ADCs and targeted therapies across multiple tumors, broadening the question to whether PD-1xVEGF can become a preferred IO combination backbone. China