本报告汇总高盛覆盖的亚太经济体区域及各国的增长数据,包含9月PMI,但多数"硬"经济指标仍为8月数据。9月PMI表现分化,但多数新兴市场(尤其是较大经济体)有所改善,中国和印度的制造业与服务业PMI在9月均上升。受能源价格回升及债券收益率上行的滞后影响,多国高盛当前活动指标(CAI)在8月走软,但整体区域增长依然稳健,有限调查数据显示9月初值略有改善。近几个月因科技出口持续超预期及此前能源价格回落,高盛小幅上调了地区GDP增长预测。韩国和中国因股市走弱、货币走强导致金融条件收紧,台湾则进一步宽松。
This publication summarizes regional and country-specific growth data across the Asia-Pacific economies we cover. We include September PMIs, but the most recent "hard" economic indicators refer to August in most cases. September PMIs were mixed, but most EMs—particularly the larger economies—saw improvement. Specifically, the monthly factory and services PMIs for China and India all increased in September. Our GS Current Activity Indicators (CAIs) softened in several countries in August, likely reflecting renewed increases in energy prices and rising bond yields that extended into September. Even so, overall regional growth has held up, and preliminary September CAIs look somewhat better based on the limited survey data now in hand. On net, we upgraded GDP growth forecasts modestly over the past couple of months, partly reflecting continued tech export outperformance and partly the earlier easing in energy prices (which has since been reversed). Financial conditions tightened in Korea