Apple, Inc.: F4Q26 Earnings Preview – Putting the Macro Aside for a Day

We expect an in-line Sept Q report/Dec Q guide, but see modest downside risk to Street's Dec Q iPhone revs/gross margin. With valuation near all-time highs and limited EPS upside, earnings isn't much of a catalyst, though Apple's defensive/anti-AI capex thematic helps in a choppy market. We forecast Sept Q revenue of $113B (+10.6% Y/Y) and EPS of $1.99, both in line with Consensus, with Services growth of 9.7% Y/Y and gross margin of 47.6%. For Dec Q we model revenue of $152B (+5.9% Y/Y) and EPS of $2.88, about 1% below Consensus, with iPhone revenue 2% below Street on lower units more than offsetting higher ASPs, and gross margin contracting 110bps Q/Q to 46.5% (vs. 47.1% Consensus) as rising memory costs weigh on Products. Services growth accelerates to 10.8% Y/Y. Key debates into the print: the iPhone 18 cycle, Services growth, product gross margins, capital allocation/M&A appetite, and Apple's AI strategy. At 35.4x forward P/E, a 17-year high versus the S&P, valuation is full;