本报告是摩根大通全球市场策略团队发布的散户资金流周度跟踪（覆盖2026年10月1日至10月7日），标题为《散户资金雷达——季节性转强，科技股重回聚光灯》。核心观点：随着10月到来，散户季节性最疲弱的三季度已过，上周资金流从9月低点回升至12个月均值水平，主要由ETF资金修复驱动（回升至第32百分位）；散户重新拥抱科技板块，科技类ETF流入升至第73百分位（四周前仅第4百分位），Mag 7资金持续流入，科技（剔除Mag 7）资金转强，SNDK与MU位列上周买入量第三、四位，且不仅半导体和硬件，软件亦获净买入。SPCX上周大涨15%，散户在IPO后建立的大额仓位继续减持但10月节奏放缓。动量因子9月表现强劲，动量ETF活动在9月22日后暂停后恢复，SPMO、XMMO获持续买入。
J.P. Morgan's Retail Radar weekly (Oct 1–7, 2026) shows retail flows rebounding from September lows back to 12-month average levels ($5.7B vs. $6.7B average), driven by recovering ETF activity as the seasonally weakest Q3 period ends. Retail investors regained appetite for Tech: Tech sector ETF inflows climbed to the 73rd percentile (from the 4th four weeks ago), with resilient Mag 7 buying and strengthening flows into Tech ex Mag 7 led by SNDK and MU, extending to Software as well. Momentum delivered a strong September, and retail activity in Momentum ETFs resumed (buying SPMO/XMMO, selling MTUM). With 3Q earnings season kicking off, consensus expects +31% y/y earnings growth (+27% ex-Energy) and +12% revenue growth, though FY26 revisions have trended lower since early September; analysts see scope for a pre-earnings bounce in large banks, but retail showed little interest in buying financial weakness. Top buys: NVDA (+$834M), GOOGL (+$265M);