Atlas Copco (ATCOa.ST): Barometer and thoughts into 3Q26

We increase our adj. EBIT FY26/27 estimates for Atlas Copco by 1%/4% to reflect the latest upgrades in our Semiconductor Capex Tracker (+5.8pp since our last update to 29% FY25-29E CAGR, Exhibit 7). We also note that our GS Semis team recently raised their WFE estimates for FY26/27/28. Specifically, we increase Vacuum Technique sales by 4%/10% in 2026/27E, and with operating leverage driving margin expansion, we accordingly increase the division's adj. EBIT by 6%/13%. For Compressor Technique, we continue to see the likelihood of higher orders from large gas compressors due to further regional diversification in O&G capex and longer LNG routes as a consequence of the US-Iran conflict stressing the concentration of assets in the region. However, we remain more cautious on Industrial Technique and Power Technique due to higher inflation and rising interest rates delaying a recovery in construction. Overall, we increase our 2026/27E sales by 1%/3%, putting Atlas above the sector median on