GS SUSTAIN: DEMOGRAPHICS TO DEMAND — Key Debates on Aging and Declining Populations and Impacts on Demand

In the latest installment of our Demographic Dilemma series, we address the key debates raised by investors on the implications of longer lifespans and lower fertility rates for product, industry, and company-specific demand. According to UN data, the core consumer population (35-55) is likely to have peaked in developed economies and is set to see an accelerated decline of 3 million (~-0.75%) p.a. starting in 2030, while retirees (65+) will experience continued growth of 4 million annually over the coming decade. China is set to see a decline of 109 mn in core consumers (35-55), -1% to -2% annually, by 2050 (-24% vs. 2024). Our Demographic-Driven Demand (DDD) framework combines consumer spending and engagement data across the US, Europe and Japan with corporate product and geographic revenue exposure to measure demand headwinds and tailwinds for ~3,000 companies out to 2030, 2040 and 2050 vs. a 2023 base. We reiterate our view that aging and declining populations will play an increasi