Q3'26 preview: large cap EU pharma (+ a few smids)

We provide brief thoughts and estimates into Q3 results, which commence informally with JNJ's Darzalex print 13th October and for large caps formally with Roche 22nd October. This follows a quarter in which the sector has broadly kept pace with EU indices though somewhat struggled for direction, with fundamentals challenged by mixed set of pipeline newsflow and consensus stories somewhat disintegrating (i.e. AZN, NOVN etc, joining NOVO). Overall, we expect a solid if unremarkable set of results, which are likely to reinforce the sector's defensive characteristics, though noting that appeal has recently waned with the US market making new highs and we are also heading into the mid-term election cycle.