野村全球市场研究部亚洲外汇策略团队发布美元兑人民币中间价模型的最新预测。本期模型给出的中间价预测值较上一次预测明显下调，且略高于前一交易日的官方收盘价；在加入逆周期因子调整后，预测值同样较上一次预测有所回落。从隔夜贡献看，韩元、欧元和日元对预测变动形成正向拉动，卢布则是主要拖累项。报告同时回顾了近期模型误差的走势，指出模型误差在经历一段明显负向偏离后已逐步收窄并转入正值区间，美元兑人民币中间价的日度调升与调降幅度总体较为温和。事件方面，报告列出未来数月需关注的关键时点，包括中美元首会晤、人民银行货币政策委员会例会、国庆黄金周假期、人民银行第三季度货币政策执行报告以及亚太经合组织领导人会议等。整体来看，报告认为人民币中间价将延续相对稳定、双向波动的运行格局。
Nomura's Asia FX Strategy team presents the latest USD/CNY fix model projection. The model projects a lower fixing than the previous projection and slightly above the previous official spot close; the projection adjusted with the counter-cyclical factor is also lower than before. In terms of overnight contributions, KRW, EUR and JPY pushed the projected change higher, while RUB was the main drag. The report also reviews recent model errors, noting that after a period of pronounced negative deviation the errors have narrowed and moved into positive territory, while daily changes in the USD/CNY fix have been broadly moderate. On the event front, the report lists key dates to watch over the coming months, including the US state visit, the PBoC monetary policy committee meeting, the National Day Golden Week holiday, the PBoC Q3 monetary policy report and the APEC Leaders' Meeting. Overall, the report expects the RMB fixing to remain relatively stable with two-way fluctuations.