本报告为摩根士丹利对SpaceX（SPCX.US）的风险收益更新。公司上周在行业会议上披露自12月起新增每月11亿美元的新云（neocloud）合同，该利好被Starlink定价下调以及Starship因测试进度持续延误导致发射节奏放缓部分抵消，2026年EPS上调1%，2027年EPS上调3.8%，目标价维持不变。分部加总估值法下，300美元目标价由太空业务8美元、连接业务118美元、X与Grok业务8美元及企业级AI业务165美元构成，估值日为2027年6月30日，WACC为11.2%，股权成本11.9%，企业级AI因执行风险给予50%折扣，隐含0.46倍EV/EBIT/增长率。
Risk Reward for SpaceX (SPCX.O) has been updated. Our update reflects a new $1.1bn/month neocloud deal beginning December, disclosed by the company at an industry conference last week, partially offset by lower Starlink pricing and Starship launch cadence given ongoing delays in the testing regime. 2026 EPS rises 1% and 2027 EPS rises 3.8%, with no change in price targets. Our $300 price target is the sum of the parts: Space ($8), Connectivity ($118), X & Grok ($8) and Enterprise AI ($165), based on a 2040 ending forecast period, a 6/30/2027 valuation date, an 11.2% WACC and 11.9% cost of equity, a 50% Enterprise AI valuation discount for execution risk, and terminal growth rates of 4.0% Space, 4.5% Connectivity, 3.0% X & Grok and 5.0% Enterprise AI, equating to 0.46 EV/EBIT/Growth. The bull case of $600 assumes "Infrastructure Flywheel Accelerates," with faster execution across Starship, orbital compute and Terafab and AI representing more than 60% of valuation. The base case of $300