据官方央视报道，中国财政部近期允许地方政府动用此前已批准但未使用的债券额度，额外调拨5500亿元资金以支撑地方财政支出与投资。这一安排基本符合我们8月初的判断，市场在9月28日国务院释放政策信号后也有所预期。与2024年、2025年类似安排相比，当时大部分额外债券额度被用于化解隐性债务，而本次5500亿元全部计划用于四季度增量财政支出，影响或略大于2024—2025年，但可能仅能抵消过去半年财政收缩的一部分。我们认为新一轮政策组合拳（包括更多央行贷款额度与定向房贷补贴计划）影响有限，当前经济困境需要更精细的规划、不良债务清理以及公共财政与社会保障体系的结构性改革。我们维持四季度GDP同比增长4.5%的预测。具体来看，5500亿元额度中3000亿元为地方政府一般债券，全部用于支持县区级政府预算内一般支出；
According to the state-run CCTV, the Ministry of Finance has recently allowed local governments to tap an extra RMB550bn funding from previously approved but unused bond quotas to bolster their spending and investment. This arrangement is largely in line with our views formulated in early August. The market had also developed some expectations, especially after the policy signal from the State Council on 28 September. Compared with similar policy arrangements in 2024 and 2025, when a large part of the extra bond quotas was used to resolve hidden debt, all of this RMB550bn is planned for incremental fiscal spending in Q4, which might have a slightly larger impact than in 2024-25. That said, this might only offset part of the fiscal contraction in the past half a year. We continue to see a limited impact from the new round of policy package, including more central bank lending quotas and the targeted mortgage subsidy program. We believe the current economic woes require far more sophisti