Koninklijke Philips NV (PHG.AS): Model Update

We update our estimates for Philips ahead of 3Q26 results (Nov 3). We lower our FY26-30E org. sales growth forecasts by c.10bps, on average, but raise our absolute revenue estimates by c.1% as we also mark-to-market for FX. Our 2026-30E adj. EBITA estimates are essentially unchanged. For 3Q26E, we forecast group OSG of 2.9%, vs VisibleAlpha consensus 3.3%, and adj. EBITA margin of 12.2% vs. VisibleAlpha consensus 12.0%; this corresponds to 3Q26E adj. EBITA of Eur537mn, vs. cons Eur526mn. For FY27E, we forecast group organic sales growth of 3.4% vs. VA cons 4.2% and adj. EBITA margin of 13.0%, vs. VA cons 13.4%. All in, our FY26-30E core EPS forecasts are largely unchanged. Our 12-month TP of Eur26.0 is also unchanged;