Technip Energies (TE.PA): Upgrade to Buy on renewed backlog momentum

We upgrade Technip Energies to Buy from Neutral as we see increasing visibility on several large gas award opportunities driven by the acceleration of gas supply diversification away from the Strait of Hormuz. Recent disruptions to Middle East LNG supply chains have increased the strategic importance of a number of projects previously viewed as secondary, longer-dated, or outside the industry's core FID pipeline. Projects including Commonwealth LNG Expansion, Abadi LNG, Bab Gas Cap, Fujairah LNG and Coral FLNG 3 have gained momentum as buyers in Europe and Asia prioritize supply security and route diversification. A successful outcome could add up to c.€10.5bn of incremental backlog, with backlog conversion supporting revenue growth from 2027 onwards. We raise our revenue estimates by 3%/12%/36% for 2027E/2028E/2029E, driving EPS upgrades of 3%/12%/34%. The stock has materially underperformed peers and the French market, down 22.9% since 30 March with a 31.8% maximum drawdown, now trad