亚洲信贷展望：亚洲高收益债违约率将低于历史平均水平

Asia HY default rates are likely to remain below historical norms, ending this year at around 0.8% after three year-to-date defaults totaling US$778 million and Huacheng's likely liability management exercise. We expect the rate to rise only modestly to about 2.0% next year, still below the 2.4% historical average and far from the 16.9% peak in 2022, as China property-sector stress continues to recede and recent defaults remain concentrated among issuers with prior default histories. Refinancing risks also appear manageable despite roughly US$25 billion of Asia HY maturities next year, with China LGFVs accounting for about 60% of the total and likely to benefit from continued policy support. Distressed trading bonds have fallen to six-year lows, further supporting a contained default outlook, and Asia's projected default rate should compare favorably with EM HY overall, US HY, Eastern Europe, and Latin America.