dbMetals: The Whole Flow Report - When the Bells Ring Loudest

Metal in Focus: Gold. Selling exhaustion in gold, even as the bells ring loudest. At the turn of the month, we argued for selling exhaustion in gold only days after Jackson Hole roiled rate market expectations in favour of a new and imminent hiking cycle. Today, gold prices remain roughly unchanged even as the Fed officially kicks off a new hiking cycle. Gold has displayed remarkable strength in prices, even as the bells ring loudest with US10y yields breaching 5% and crude prices trading north of $100/bbl. Under the hood, our tracking of spot inflows, derived from Deutsche Bank's globally aggregated e-trading flows, suggest limited spot outflows over the last session. Discretionary traders are largely on the sidelines, but had accumulated some longs in futures through June as prices approached $4000/oz, and have since acted as a drag on prices. CTAs are also hitting the bid, selling up to -7% of their max size this session below $4360/oz. We expect continued commercial, non-commercial