本周美元自7月末FOMC会议及日元干预事件以来首次出现实质性买入。在一系列美国利好数据（非农就业、CPI、美联储加息）之后，上周出现首轮实质美元买盘，基于看涨/看跌期权流向估算，本周美元买入规模约达+1个标准差，打破了7月下旬以来持续卖出美元、买入美元看跌期权的趋势。不过美元净持仓整体仍偏中性，即便计入上周买盘，市场上也难以论证存在大规模美元头寸；期权流向动量显示美元持仓今年以来大部分时间在中性附近震荡，期货端年中建立的美元多头已明显削减，期权与期货两项指标合并后战略性美元头寸实际上处于中性，这与美元风险逆转的走势基本一致。此轮反弹部分源于美元/日元卖盘消退，跨日元的大额流向本周回落至接近净中性方向性流动，但近期日元战术性买盘规模可观，日本央行会议前后存在不可忽视的挤压风险。
USD was bought for the first time really since the end-July FOMC and JPY intervention episodes. We saw the first material USD buying last week after a string of positive US developments (NFP, CPI, Fed hike). Using our call/put flow, we estimate about +1-sigma dollar buying this week, breaking the trend of dollar selling / USD put demand since late July. USD net positioning still screens pretty neutral though; even after last week's USD buying, it's hard to argue that there is a large USD position in the market. Options flow momentum shows dollar positioning has largely oscillated around neutral this year, and combining options and futures metrics points to a broader strategic USD position that is effectively neutral, consistent with how USD riskies have been trading. Part of the w/w rebound reflects the lack of continued USD/JPY selling, which ebbed this week to near net-neutral directional flows, though substantial tactical JPY buying was built up into the BoJ meeting. EUR took the br