Howmet: Airfoil competition controversy? Yes - but, expect continued strength; Q3 preview

Bernstein rates Howmet Aerospace (HWM.US) Outperform with a price target of $298 (down from $328), ahead of its 3Q26 report on October 29. We expect Howmet to continue its strong growth trajectory despite aerospace market overhangs from fuel prices and potential competitive threats in airfoil castings. The leading Q3 controversy is how a SpaceX entry into castings/forgings and a GE acquisition of CPP would impact Howmet. We expect no impact from the SpaceX move, as it appears designed for vertical integration rather than becoming a new third-party supplier — indeed probably a positive signal of how tight the market is. We see some long-term risk from the GE/CPP deal (not due to close until H2 2027);