本报告在铁路公司三季度财报季开启前更新盈利模型与估值假设：CSX于周三发布财报，UNP和NSC于周四发布，我们认为各公司对前景的指引总体到位，当季业绩与市场一致预期差异有限。我们预计UNP将小幅超出市场预期，因其运营顺畅且净燃油成本表现强劲；NSC虽存在成本问题和人员增加，但煤炭结构改善应带来提振，预计亦将略超预期；CSX受益于裁员、成本控制以及燃油计划调整，当季有望超预期。我们对CNI三季度业绩略低于市场预期，主要因运输结构及燃油价格波动；对CP的判断则与市场一致。我们维持UNP、NSC的跑赢评级，以及CNI、CP、CSX的与大市持平评级，并据此调整目标价：UNP上调至347美元（原346美元），NSC维持396美元、CSX维持48美元、CNR.CN维持196加元、CP.CN维持144加元。
Rail reports start this week, with CSX on Wednesday and UNP and NSC on Thursday. We keep the note brief as we think the group has done a good job framing the outlook, and we don't see much variance from consensus in the current quarter. We look for UNP to come in modestly ahead of consensus, as operations are humming and net fuel should be very strong. We look for NSC to also slightly beat the street, as while cost issues and rising headcount are apparent, we think they should be getting some lift on coal mix. We also look for CSX to beat in the quarter, on headcount reductions and cost controls combined with help from recent changes to the fuel program. We are modestly below the street for CNI in 3Q, largely due to mix and fuel volatility, and we are in line for CP. We maintain Outperform ratings on UNP and NSC and Market-Perform ratings on CNI, CP and CSX. Our one-year price targets are $347 for UNP (previously $346), $396 for NSC, $48 for CSX, C$196 for CNR.CN and C$144 for CP.CN.