美国航空业2026年三季度前瞻：因燃油波动调整展望

We update our numbers for UAL, AAL, and LUV ahead of their 3Q26 prints. Our models are adjusted for a worse fuel backdrop that we model as a bit more severe than the street through the end of 2026. For UAL and AAL, we remain a bit ahead of the street for FY27, and below the street for LUV. Demand has been holding up for the major U.S. airlines despite elevated yields intended to help offset fuel price pressure. But fuel continues to be volatile and uncertain, and given this is such a big driver for airline models, it's possible that consensus numbers could shift around quite a bit from here. Fuel will be the main topic as we close out FY26. We maintain Outperform ratings for both UAL and AAL, lowering price targets to $160 and $19, respectively, and maintain a Market-Perform rating for LUV with a $45 price target.