Holcim Ltd. (HOLN.S): Q3 EBIT 3% beat vs. consensus

Q3 recurring EBIT of CHF 976m was 2.8% above consensus and 1.3% above MSe. Organic growth of 5.1% was essentially in line and margins were a bit better than expected. The EBIT beat in CHF came from scope and FX, with LatAm (+CHF 24m vs cons) and AMEA (+CHF 13m) more than offsetting a CHF 15m miss in Europe. Double-digit organic EBIT growth for 7 quarters in a row since the Amrize spin. Europe organic revenue +3.9%, Latin America +6.3% (130bps above both MSe and consensus), AMEA +6.8%. Guidance upgraded to 10-12% organic growth at recurring EBIT from >10%, with 5% organic net sales growth. We forecast 11.5% organic growth in 2026 with EBIT estimates in line with the street; consensus is well underpinned. M&A remains active with 11 deals closed year to date (10 acquisitions, one divestment), including Xella and Fermacell. Equal-weight, price target SFr 79; the valuation premium vs heavyside peers already reflects the solid operating performance (FY27e P/E 15x, EV/EBITDA 9x).