本报告为野村「亚洲洞察」系列的中国经济简评。国务院在例行会议后发布备忘录，承诺加大逆周期调节力度以应对经济下行压力，并敦促为实现全年增长目标付出更大努力。由于二季度GDP同比增速较一季度放缓且三季度未见改善，报告认为这反映出决策层对经济走弱和增长前景的担忧升温。野村预计，为达成增长目标，北京将加快财政支出、政策性银行贷款以及央行再贷款的投放，但由于货币政策更依赖定向结构性工具，年内不会下调政策利率或存款准备金率。报告预计近期将出台新一轮政策包，但规模温和、对经济的拉动有限，并维持其GDP增速预测不变。备忘录要点还包括：推动重大项目尤其是「六张网」加快开工以稳定投资，加快各类政府债券发行使用并动用此前已批准但未使用的额度，提高对科技、农业、小微企业等领域的再贷款额度，以及研究出台稳定房地产和就业市场的政策。
This evening the State Council issued a memo following a regular meeting. The memo vowed to step up countercyclical policy efforts to address growth headwinds and called for greater efforts to meet this year's growth target (4.5% to 5.0%). As y-o-y GDP growth slowed to 4.3% in Q2 from 5.0% in Q1 and shows no improvement in Q3, this statement suggests Beijing's heightened concerns over the weakening economy and lends support to our view that Beijing, under increasing pressure to deliver on its growth target, will unveil more supportive measures later this year. We expect Beijing to speed up fiscal spending, policy bank lending, and central bank relending. With this State Council memo highlighting greater reliance on structural monetary policy instruments, we maintain our view that neither a policy rate cut nor an RRR cut is likely to be delivered by end-2026, especially as other major central banks are still under pressure to raise rates. Although Beijing is likely to announce a new pol