本报告综合并更新瑞银三项最基础的模拟芯片研究：半导体买方采购调查、分销商库存监测以及对模拟芯片公司资产负债表的财务深入分析。结论显示：客户需求预期依然强劲但较二季度小幅回落；直销客户与分销商均反映供给开始成为隐忧；多数客户预计模拟元器件价格将继续上涨；分销商库存再度小幅下降，意味着这部分客户尚未开始重建库存。上述因素共同印证模拟周期仍有相当上行空间。展望后市，市场对四季度及后续季度的预测普遍高于正常季节性水平，报告认为这一判断合理，并看好盈利预期的有利设置，其中德州仪器（TXN）凭借库存状况、份额回升潜力以及资本开支回落后自由现金流迎来拐点，仍是模拟板块首选，亚德诺（ADI）同样具备较好的盈利上行机会。
We again combine and update our three most fundamental pieces of analog research (detailed below). In combination, these suggest: 1) demand expectations among customers remain strong, though downticked slightly from Q2; 2) both direct buyers and distributors are reporting that supply is becoming a concern; 3) the majority of customers anticipate price increases for analog components, and 4) distributor inventories declined modestly once again, ergo this segment of the customer base has yet to even start rebuilding inventories. Taken together, this all reaffirms our view that there is still quite a bit of upside to the analog cycle despite what has been weaker investor sentiment as of late. Looking ahead, Street estimates are generally set to ~200-300bps above normal seasonal for CQ4, which we think is fine and we see generally favorable earnings set-ups - particularly for TXN and ADI. TXN remains our top pick in analog given its inventory position, share (re)gain potential, and FCF inf