从AI主题向周期逻辑切换困难重重；下调目标价至675美元

Morgan Stanley reviews Caterpillar's 3Q26 results: a modest EPS beat and reaffirmed FY26 outlook, but a sequential decline in bookings, deeper Construction Industries dealer de-stocking than previously expected and manufacturing/inflationary cost pressure have caused the AI thematic that drove the stock to all-time highs to give way to a cyclical debate, fueling fears of peak earnings and a sharp same-day selloff. The analysts argue the shares have entered a cyclical de-rating phase and could stay range bound over the medium term. They lower the price target, shifting valuation from a multi-growth-stage DCF to roughly 21.5x 2027 EPS, a peak-on-trough type multiple, while maintaining an Equal-weight rating, citing the stock's already large decline from its high, a backlog that is peaking but shows no material cancellations, and strong free cash flow supporting buybacks and downside support.