稳健的一季；暴露前预防市场增长依旧强劲

GILD posted a 3Q revenue beat and raised 2026 product sales guidance to $31.0-31.3bn from $30.1-30.4bn. US HIV PrEP market growth remained robust at ~14% y/y in 3Q26, with Yeztugo and Descovy holding ~50% combined share. Yeztugo 3Q sales of $305mn beat consensus by 7%, and management reiterated ~$1bn for 2026; Descovy sales of $1.05bn rose 49% y/y on channel-mix pricing and favorable inventory; Biktarvy sales of $4.1bn lifted US treatment share to 53%. Management flagged a ~$1.5bn IRA impact on 2028 Biktarvy sales but expects the HIV franchise to still grow. We raise outer-year PrEP estimates, add Emvistegrast to our model, and set 2026/2027 EPS at $(1.02)/$9.85. Our DCF-based price target rises to $183 from $163 (10% WACC, 3% terminal growth), implying 18.5x 2027E EPS; we remain Overweight given downside protection in the core HIV franchise and potential upside from long-acting and once-weekly oral lenacapavir.