本文为高盛2026年9月16日发布的美国市场午间情报。美联储在本次议息会议上如期加息25个基点，点阵图显示年内或再加息一次，且2027年预计不会降息，立场偏鹰；但10年期美债收益率基本维持在声明前的4.95%不变，显示市场或本就希望美联储通过加息表明其已掌控能源危机引发的通胀压力。经济数据方面，8月核心零售销售环比增长1.4%，表现强劲且范围广泛，其中非实体零售商（电商）因亚马逊Prime Day提前而回升0.5个百分点；高盛据此将2026年三季度GDP增速跟踪预测上调0.5个百分点至+3.0%（环比折年），并预计8月核心PCE环比上涨0.27%、同比上涨3.17%，8月PCE数据将于9月30日公布。消费方面，美国消费者保持韧性但更趋挑剔，偏好价值、便利、服务与必需品，高盛对2027年前景谨慎乐观，并将2027年可支配现金流入预测上调至+3.9%。
US stocks are trading moderately higher Wednesday in the early minutes after the FOMC's as-expected 25bp rate hike and the release of Fed dots that imply one additional rate hike in 2026, following a remarkably strong August Retail Sales report. The dots also show no rate cuts expected in 2027. Despite the hawkish tone, 10-year US Treasury yields are little changed from their pre-statement level at 4.95%, suggesting markets may have wanted a hike as evidence the Fed is on top of any inflation impulse from the prolonged energy crisis. Core retail sales rose 1.4% in August on a broad-based basis, including a 0.5pp rebound in non-store retailers as an earlier-than-usual Amazon Prime Day laps. GS economists raised the 3Q26 GDP tracking estimate by 0.5pp to +3.0% qoq annualized, and now expect core PCE to rise 0.27% in August, or +3.17% yoy, with the August PCE reading due Sep-30. The US consumer remains resilient but discerning, favoring value, convenience, services and necessities;