China's AI Path: Rmb8.5tr capex to 3x Compute

We forecast Rmb8.5tr total capex, 2026-30E, supporting IT capacity reaching 81GW by 2030E. We address the financing need and ROIC. We are OW AI infra (BABA, KC, VNET), AI labs (MiniMax, Zhipu) and GPU localization. Rmb2.0tr offshore capex is the key consideration; hyperscalers assume multiple roles in the supply chain and circularity is more limited in China. Self-built IaaS earns ~44% OP margin, ~13% ROIC and ~3-year payback; self-built MaaS delivers ~53% OP margin and 19% ROIC for 1P (2.5-year payback) and ~57% OP margin and 29% ROIC for 3rd-party API (2-year payback); domestic inferencing ROIC could be lower but has room for improvement. We forecast 5.6-13GW power demand and 6.1-11GW third-party IDC orders in 2026-30E, with domestic deployment cheaper at US$15-23mn per MW.