AI Financing: The Quality Divide

AI infrastructure, and how it gets financed, has been the defining market theme of 2026, particularly in credit. Morgan Stanley's core premise is unchanged: demand for compute vastly exceeds supply and the imbalance will persist for years, driving AI infrastructure capex projections higher, with total capex for the four largest hyperscalers projected to rise over 50% in 2027 versus 2026. Given average credit ratings of roughly AA, average market caps above $3 trillion, diversified businesses and long profitability records against 25%+ prospective ROIC, higher borrowing costs alone are unlikely to materially alter their commitment;