华泰证券2026年10月中国(内地)月度策略报告指出,9月全行业景气指数小幅回落,但上游资源与必需消费等主要板块动能改善;除AI链、涨价链和出口制造动能延续外,地产及部分地产链出现企稳回升迹象,K型分化有望以"扩散"方式收敛。分项看:AI链硬件端PCB、半导体设备、服务器及应用端游戏向上;地产链中地产、装修建材、普通钢材、建筑企稳,小家电与白酒动能回升;涨价链的煤炭、石油石化、航运港口、部分化工品与造纸持续改善;制造端的船舶、商用车、风电趋势向上。配置上,近期调整后市场吸引力提升,但高油价下的利率上行压力仍制约估值;随三季报预告季开启,建议继续向盈利、低拥挤度与低波动板块再平衡,科技链看好光通信与PCB/MLCC,另看好创新药、部分化工品、航运、船舶及部分地产链,红利板块仍为压舱石。9月行业轮动组合回报-4.8%,相对全A超额收益0.6%;
Huatai Securities' October 2026 China (Mainland) monthly strategy report notes that the all-sector business climate index edged down in September, though momentum improved in upstream resources and consumer staples. Beyond the AI chain, the price-hike chain and export-oriented manufacturing, property and parts of the property chain showed signs of stabilization and recovery, and K-shaped divergence is expected to converge in a diffusive manner. AI chain: PCBs, semiconductor equipment, servers and games trend upward. Property chain: property, fit-out materials, common steel and construction stabilized, with small home appliances and baijiu recovering. Price-hike chain: coal, oil & petrochemicals, shipping & ports, select chemicals and paper kept improving. Manufacturing: shipbuilding, commercial vehicles and wind power trended upward. On allocation, market appeal improved after the recent correction, but upward pressure on interest rates amid high oil prices still constrains valuations;