野村发布亚洲(除日本)利率策略报告,指出FOMC会议后亚洲利率双向波动,曲线趋平是贯穿性主题:香港、新加坡及部分韩国利率表现坚挺,台湾和泰国利率则大幅上涨。整体维持对实际收益率偏低或央行尚未开始加息市场(新加坡、泰国)的支付(做空利率)立场,更看好实际收益率较高且已多次加息的市场(韩国,一定程度上包括印尼);对印度偏好曲线趋平交易。报告认为市场对未来六个月各国加息幅度的定价普遍高于野村预测,但信用利差仍低、股市稳健、PMI等增长指标向好,尚无金融条件收紧的明显迹象。具体交易建议包括:支付5年期新元利率、泰铢2s10s趋平(信心4/5)、支付泰国12月5年期(信心3/5)、接收韩国H26-5年期相对台湾(信心3/5)、印度NDOIS趋平;
Following the FOMC meeting, Asia rates have been volatile in both directions, with curve flattening a consistent theme. Hong Kong, Singapore and to some extent Korea rates held up, while Taiwan and Thailand rates rallied significantly. Overall, we maintain our view to pay markets with low real yields or where central banks have not yet started hiking (Singapore and Thailand), while being more positive on markets where real yields are high and central banks have already hiked a few times (Korea and to some extent Indonesia). For India, where real yields are high but the central bank is likely on the cusp of a rate hike, we prefer flatteners. Markets are pricing in more hikes than we forecast across countries over the next six months, though so far there are no clear signs of tightening financial conditions. We recommend paying 5y SGD and a 2s10s Thai flattener (conviction 4/5), paying Dec-5y Thailand (3/5), receiving H26-5y Korea versus Taiwan (3/5), India NDOIS flatteners, initiating a