摩根士丹利策略团队近期与华盛顿资深电信、FCC及出口管制法律团队会面。讨论显示，美国政府减少对中国技术依赖的努力中，FCC涵盖清单（Covered List）更可能成为针对光收发模块的近期抓手，限制或落在3.2T世代并分阶段实施，最早或于今年10月落地；行业已被要求在3.2T大规模部署前证明可信的美国或友岸制造方案。若中国制造收发模块的物料清单（BOM）中美国企业价值占比达到65%（DSP加激光器即可接近该门槛），仍可进口。由于3.2T预计2028年才启动放量、2029年才广泛应用，即便行动更早，近期收入影响也有限。该规则有望在不对超大规模厂商建设构成瓶颈的同时令激光器市场维持紧张，利好LITE/COHR；并行看，InP衬底供应与中国的潜在反制出口限制仍是需持续关注的领域。
Morgan Stanley strategists recently met with a senior Washington telecom, FCC and export-control legal team with direct engagement across the White House and FCC. Discussion focused on the Administration's efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese technology, with the FCC Covered List emerging as the more likely near-term mechanism for optical transceivers. Policy discussions suggest 3.2T transceivers would likely be where restrictions would be phased in, potentially as soon as October, with industry recently asked to demonstrate credible U.S. or friend-shoring plans before 3.2T becomes broadly deployed. Discussions also indicate Chinese-built transceivers could still be importable, even at 3.2T, as long as 65% of the BOM comes from US-based companies (DSP / laser would get you pretty close). Initial 3.2T volumes are not expected to ramp until 2029, limiting the near-term revenue impact even if action comes sooner. We would see these rules as having the potential to avoid creating a constr