野村美国经济团队对美国核心PCE通胀进行前瞻分析。美国经济分析局（BEA）将于9月30日发布PCE物价指数的年度更新，其中纳入CPI与PPI源数据的修正、更新后的季节因子，以及对三个关键组成项（投资组合管理与投资建议、法律服务、计算机软件及配件）的方法论调整。我们预计该年度更新将把2026年7月核心PCE同比通胀下修约15个基点，由当前的3.34%降至3.19%。在新方法论下，预计8月核心PCE通胀环比上涨0.278%，同比上涨3.30%，略低于FOMC对2026年四季度核心PCE的3.4%中值预测。方法论调整预计使7月核心PCE同比降低约16个基点，略小于此前约20个基点的估计，原因是作为PCE计算机软件及配件价格输入的两条PPI序列近期被上修，小幅削弱了方法论调整的负面影响。
Methodological changes to certain PCE price components, along with revisions to PPI data and updated seasonal factors, will likely lower July 2026 y-o-y core PCE inflation by about 15bp. Under the new methodology, we expect August core PCE inflation rose 0.278% m-o-m, or 3.30% y-o-y, slightly below the FOMC median projection of 3.4% for Q4 2026. We maintain our medium-term inflation outlook that core PCE inflation will moderate gradually from 2027 as the impact from supply shocks fades. On 30 September, the BEA will release its annual update of the PCE price index, incorporating revisions to CPI and PPI source data, updated seasonal factors, and methodological changes to three key components. We estimate the annual update will revise lower July 2026 y-o-y core PCE inflation by about 15bp, to 3.19% from 3.34% currently. The BEA is planning to change its methodology for estimating three key components of the PCE price index: portfolio management and investment advice, legal services, and