Key Call: MediaTek Inc. — Multiple catalysts ahead on TPU; quantifying upside in new ASIC projects

UBS reiterates its Key Call Buy on MediaTek (2454.TW) and raises its price target to NT$7,300 from NT$6,500 based on unchanged 27x 2027-28E PE. We believe the market has not fully priced in MediaTek's strategic value and opportunity in Google TPU, and see several catalysts ahead: 1) v9 tape-out delivery by Nov 2026E, 2) improving visibility and execution of Intel EMIB-T, 3) Google further raising v9 volume forecast in H127, 4) MediaTek upgrading TPU guidance at its Oct and Jan/Feb earnings conferences. We keep TPU sales at US$18bn in 2027E but raise 2028/29E to US$43.5bn/52.5bn from US$35.0/40.0bn. EMIB-T supply should be sufficient to drive >2m v9 volume in 2028, though substrate could be tight if v9 volume grows to 4m or more in 2029, and MediaTek could add a CoWoS solution with TSMC. Two potential new ASIC projects (SpaceX's Dojo 3 and Tesla's AI6) could drive up to US$10-15bn combined ASIC revenue opportunity. We raise 2028/29E EPS by 21/28%; our 2028 EPS is 44% above consensus.