瑞银发布Workday(WDAY.US)研报。Workday在拉斯维加斯Rising客户活动上举办年度投资者日,重申(而非上调)FY28指引:收入增长11%、经营利润率扩张200个基点,且未给出FY29及以后的展望;鉴于AI驱动变革的速度以及公司此前超预期记录不稳定,此举较为审慎。FY28增量ARR中预计70%来自AI解决方案(FY27超50%),但尚未转化为更快的收入增长,FY27/FY28收入增速放缓至约11%(FY26约14%)。公司未披露HCM与FINS分部增速,FINS增长未达预期;看好C1.ai交易及向代理身份领域的拓展,但规模较小。因近期裁员2.5%小幅调整模型,维持「中性」评级,待AI套件与增量销售对总收入增长形成增厚。
Workday hosted its annual Investor Day at their Rising customer event. While Workday elected to only reaffirm (not raise) the FY28 guide (for 11% revenue growth and a 200bps operating margin expansion) and did not offer any outlook for FY29+, this may be prudent in light of the pace of AI-driven change and Workday's mixed track record in beating previous guidance. The narrative was about AI momentum, with 70% of incremental ARR in FY28 (over 50% in FY27) expected to come from AI solutions, but this is not yet translating to faster revenue growth, which is decelerating to ~11% in FY27/FY28 from ~14% in FY26. Workday did not give HCM and FINS segment growth rates, and the FINS growth story has not played out as hoped. We like the C1.ai deal and the push into agentic identity, though it is small, and we tweak our model for the recent 2.5% headcount reduction. Shares trade at 12x FCF, 14x non-GAAP EPS and 31x GAAP EPS on CY27 estimates. We maintain our Neutral rating pending signs of a gro