武田制药 (4502): ESMO 2026 abstract: Good additional data on TAK-928 as first-line NSCLC treatment; focus now on differentiation with competitor ivonescimab

J.P. Morgan comments on Takeda Pharmaceutical's ESMO 2026 abstract for TAK-928 (IBI363), a PD-1/IL-2α-bias bispecific fusion protein being developed with Innovent. In the China Phase 1b dose-optimization study in first-line NSCLC patients with PD-L1 expression below 50%, the 3 mg/kg then 1.5 mg/kg regimen maintained a confirmed ORR of 86.4% (n=23), with median PFS immature (event rate 34.8%), while continuous 3 mg/kg and 1.5 mg/kg regimens showed median PFS of 8.5 and 7.0 months, respectively. Grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in 69.6% of the 3→1.5 mg/kg group versus 93.1% and 89.3% in the other arms, though the sample is small and two treatment-related deaths occurred. Focus now shifts to differentiation versus ivonescimab, with HARMONi-3 PFS data expected in 2H26 and 1H27. Rating Neutral, price target ¥5,800.