JPM | 美国能源：兆瓦、分子与矿物——中期选举前瞻与思考及下周展望

This weekly previews the US midterms and the week ahead across energy, utilities and metals. The author is neutral on traditional energy: oil already embeds a ~$24/bbl risk premium versus his $94/bbl fair value, implying roughly a 6mmbd disruption is priced, while product demand is already being destroyed at the low end of five-year ranges, so prices likely fall unless escalation exceeds that. He is constructive on renewables, which are down ~50% from their May peak with net exposure to the JP11RNEW basket near two-year lows; a Democratic sweep could extend 45X credits and potentially reinstate 25D, 45Y and EV credits cut in the OBBBA, a free option for FSLR, TE, EOSE, ENPH and EVGO. Utilities look like a win/win either way, with the affordability overhang likely to fade. He is most worried about metals, especially copper, given tariff risk and the fact that ~70% of the world's visible exchange copper stocks sit in the US;