伯恩斯坦分析中国2026年10月16日发布的出口管制草案对印度电力及光伏行业的影响。该草案拟将12项光伏技术列入《禁止或限制出口技术目录》，为涉及人工智能、芯片等40项关键技术修订的一部分，意见反馈截止2026年11月15日。若按草案实施，非光伏能源将受益：煤炭作为唯一完全本土化的能源其地位进一步强化，抽水蓄能与核电不可或缺，风电设备亦受益。光伏方面，硅料、硅片、电池的一体化布局受阻：硅片扩产受限制措施约束，在建逾50GW电池产能可能延期，规划项目不确定性上升；TopCon属受限而非禁止，边缘钝化被禁但仅影响0.1%—0.2%效率；钙钛矿及晶硅叠层面临较高长期战略风险。存量电池产能（约44GW）利润率有望更长时间维持高位。个股方面，Premier Energies、Waaree Energies评级为跑输，目标价分别为814、2539印度卢比；
Bernstein assesses the implications for India's power sector of China's draft proposal, released on 16 October 2026, to add 12 photovoltaic technologies to its Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export as part of a broader revision covering 40 critical technologies including AI and chips, with submissions open until 15 November 2026. If implemented as proposed, non-solar options gain: coal's role as the only fully Indian energy source is reinforced, pumped storage and nuclear are indispensable, and wind equipment also benefits. For solar, upstream integration plans are dented: ingot-wafer plans are in limbo, more than 50GW of under-construction cell capacity could be delayed, and planned cell plants face greater uncertainty. TopCon tools fall under restrictions rather than prohibition, while advanced edge passivation is prohibited but only affects 0.1-0.2% efficiency. Perovskite and silicon-perovskite tandem carry high long-term strategic risk, while existing cell