Hartford Insurance Group (HIG): 3Q26 First Take: Headline EPS Boosted by Partnership Income, Business Insurance and Group Results Missed

J.P. Morgan's 3Q26 first take on The Hartford (HIG, HIG US): Core results were worse than expected. Group insurance earnings missed, and in P&C, upside in personal lines from continued favorable claims experience was mostly offset by deterioration in business insurance attritional losses. Commercial lines renewal pricing was down from last year, and unit count growth in personal lines remained soft. Expense ratio improvement, strong limited partnership income, and favorable reserve development across all major lines were positives. Reported EPS slightly better, core EPS missed: 3Q26 core EPS was $3.50, ~2% above the $3.43 estimate and ~10% above consensus of $3.18, driven by favorable catastrophe losses ($198M vs. $184M estimate) and limited partnership income ($155M vs. $104M estimate), plus an estimated $19M benefit from an investment revaluation;