10月28日：美联储按兵不动令曲线趋陡

The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75-4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with two officials dissenting in favor of a 25bp hike, and the statement upgraded its growth assessment from "solid" to "strong." Chair Warsh repeatedly noted tighter financial conditions without calling them restrictive, leading markets to read the hold as modestly dovish; Treasuries twist-steepened (2y -3.9bp, 30y +3.3bp), the 10y yield rose 2.1bp to 5.02% and the DXY fell 0.2% to 102.16. Warsh also announced fewer rate-setting meetings, with one 2027 meeting and two 2028 meetings no longer including a rate vote or policy statement, adding uncertainty around future policy adjustments, while markets still price more than a 90% probability of a December hike. Elsewhere, the BoC hiked 25bp to 2.5%, the RBNZ unexpectedly held, and UK gilts rallied on the budget. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ each rose 0.3%, the VIX fell 3.5% to 16.91, and Brent gained 1.3% to $115.32/bbl. Morgan Stanley expects two more hikes versus 2.8 priced by the