ab 21 September 2026 Global Research Off the peak but oversold Cutting China lithium price assumptions Following UBS Global Commodity team's cuts to its global lithium price assumptions, we further cut our China lithium price assumption to Rmb120k/t (from Rmb200k/t) for 2027E according to our detailed cost curve analysis of supply demand under the base case scenario (demand/supply up 15%/22% YoY), but still above what's priced in (i.e. Rmb100k/t). We think the current market is likely overly concerned about the potential destocking of China BESS battery while ignoring the downside risk in supply attributed by the anti-corruption investigation in Jiangxi. Hence, we cut our China lithium stocks'earnings estimates and price target but reiterate our Buy ratings. Concern on China ESS battery destocking remains a key downside risk China's battery-related lithium demand (based on cathode/electrolyte production) has risen ~60% YoY in 8M26, outpacing the ~45% YoY growth implied by end-market de