US Large Cap Banks: Guidance Cheat Sheet for 3Q26 Earnings

Morgan Stanley provides a guidance cheat sheet for 3Q26 US Large Cap Bank earnings, which kick off on October 13. The report summarizes current 2026 guidance across coverage, compares MS vs. Consensus estimates, and calculates the hypothetical EPS impact from a 1% change in growth for income statement line items such as net interest income, fees, revenue, and expenses. We see stocks moving sideways through the mid-terms, with the median bank underperforming the S&P 500 by 12 points over the past quarter, and a lack of catalysts through 3Q earnings as most banks reiterate full-year guides. However, we expect double-digit EPS growth in both 2027 and 2028, and view the group as attractive at a median 10x/9x 2027/2028 EPS. Coverage holds $158B in excess capital under existing rules, rising to $204B under the new proposals, which could accelerate capital deployment in 2027. We expect loan growth of 6%/5% in 2027/28. Most preferred names: STT, WFC, C, BAC, and FITB.