ADES (2382.SE): 3Q26 revenue and EBITDA broadly in-line vs GSe, bottom line miss vs consensus driven by one-offs

Buy-rated ADES reported 3Q26 results on November 9th. Revenue of SAR 2,229mn was flat vs GSe and 1% ahead of Bloomberg consensus, while EBITDA of SAR 1,008mn landed 1% below GSe and 4% below consensus, and net income of SAR 99mn was 27% ahead of GSe but 29% below consensus. Revenue rose 35% YoY and 4% QoQ on the Shelf consolidation, stronger Southeast Asia and West and Central Africa activity, the Egyptian brownfield production model, and partial contribution from Saipem shallow-water assets which closed on 15 September. EBITDA margin of 45% compares with 46%/47% for GSe/consensus, reflecting continued dilution from Shelf lower-margin international operations and the regional suspensions. Net income fell 55% YoY at a 4.5% margin, with the beat vs GSe driven by a one-off bargain gain on the Saipem acquisition, partly offset by a non-recurring insurance-related expense. Management reiterated FY26 EBITDA guidance of SAR 4.50-4.87bn, implying 4Q26 EBITDA of SAR 1.33-1.70bn. Net debt stood