美银美林重申克诺尔集团（Knorr-Bremse AG，KBX.GY）"买入"评级，并将目标价由130欧元上调至133欧元。报告聚焦其中国轨交业务，认为这是市场理解最不充分的增长来源：预计2030年中国轨交销售额可达约10.3亿欧元，较公司9亿欧元目标高出约15%，对应2026-2030年8.5%的复合增速；售后市场与高铁合计贡献约84%的增量，主要受2013-2018年高速列车队进入大修周期以及2027年起CR450平台新增磁轨制动内容驱动。即便仅实现管理层9亿欧元目标，轨交总销售额仍将达约59亿欧元，接近公司55-60亿欧元目标区间上端。预计2030年轨交利润率升至20.9%，高于管理层目标及市场一致预期。欧洲与美国卡车市场自周期底部复苏，支撑收入加速与经营杠杆。当前股价对应2027财年14.5倍EV/EBITA，低于上市以来14.9倍均值；
We forecast China Rail sales reaching c.€1.03bn by 2030, 15% above the company's €900m target and implying an 8.5% CAGR from 2026. Aftermarket and HSR account for c.84% of incremental sales, driven by the large 2013-18 high-speed fleet entering overhaul cycles and additional magnetic-brake content on the CR450 from 2027. Even at management's €900m target, Rail sales would reach c.€5.9bn, near the top end of the €5.5-6.0bn range. We expect Rail margins to reach 20.9% by 2030, c.90bp above management's target and 110bps ahead of consensus. Beyond Rail, truck markets in Europe and the US are recovering from cyclical lows, supporting accelerating revenue growth and operating leverage. The shares trade at 14.5x FY27 EV/EBITA, 3% below the 14.9x average since listing. We move from a sector-relative valuation approach to KB's own history, apply 17.1x FY27E EV/EBITA, a 15% premium to the historical average, and raise our price objective to €133 from €130 (c26% potential upside). Reiterate Rati