Non-Bank Financials - China (H/A): High base pressure on 3Q26 results and our current estimates

Though we are only in the middle of September and product sales/market turnover and performance may improve in the rest of the quarter, we expect 3Q26 results for most of the companies we cover to see pressure from both the high base in 3Q25 and the slow momentum in the economy and stock market. We have our current estimates in the report and will update when the quarter ends. Post 3Q26, the base effect impact will turn from unfavorable to favorable till end 1Q27. Insurers: The slow momentum of sales and VNB growth in 2Q26 off a high base in 3Q25, when the guaranteed rate cuts helped, has already resulted in low VNB growth expectation. In 9M26, China Life could be the only lifer to report positive VNB growth YoY. The market correction (ChiNext/STAR50 dropped by 24%/31% so far in 3Q26) is likely to hit the earnings of all the insurers, and the more aggressive ones like China Life and NCI could be more severely affected. We currently expect China Life and NCI to report a >50% YoY bottom-